Global oil prices have now returned to where they were before the US-Iran war began on February 28. According to Daily Pakistan’s oil price report, Brent crude fell to its lowest level in nearly four months amid easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of increased supply.
And Pakistan’s next weekly petrol price revision is scheduled for tomorrow — Friday, June 26. If crude stays below $78, another cut is coming.
Where Oil Prices Stand Right Now
Brent crude is trading near $76-78 per barrel — down from a peak of over $130 during the height of the Hormuz closure in March-April. The decline has been dramatic and sustained.
Three forces are driving oil prices down:
1. Iran sanctions waiver. The US Treasury’s 60-day license allowing Iran to sell oil through August 21 is adding supply to global markets. Iran’s production capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels per day is gradually returning.
2. Strait of Hormuz reopening. US Vice President Vance confirmed that 16 million barrels passed through the strait in a single day — a record even compared to pre-war levels. This was a direct result of the Islamabad MOU’s fourth point.
3. Demand concerns. Global economic slowdown fears in Europe and China are reducing demand projections for the second half of 2026.
What This Means for Tomorrow’s Petrol Price Revision
Pakistan moved to a weekly fuel pricing mechanism during the crisis. The next revision is due June 26, 2026 — tomorrow.
Current petrol price: Rs299.78 per litre
Current diesel price: Rs311.78 per litre
The Rs74 petrol cut on June 20 was the largest single fuel price reduction in Pakistan’s history. If Brent crude at $76-78 holds, the import parity price calculation suggests a possible cut of Rs5-15 per litre on petrol and a similar reduction on diesel.
That would bring petrol below Rs290 — the lowest level since before the war began in February.
| Date | Petrol (Rs/litre) | Brent Crude ($/barrel) |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-war (Feb 2026) | ~Rs252 | ~$72 |
| Peak (April 2026) | Rs458 | ~$130 |
| June 20 cut | Rs299.78 | ~$80 |
| June 26 (expected) | ~Rs285–295 | ~$76–78 |
The Barclays Connection: Why Oil Matters for Pakistan’s Credit
The Barclays upgrade of Pakistan’s sovereign debt to overweight is directly linked to oil prices. According to Brecorder, the bank explicitly cited “improving oil market dynamics” as a key reason for upgrading Pakistan to overweight.
Pakistan imports roughly $12.5 billion worth of petroleum products annually. Every $10 drop in Brent crude saves Pakistan approximately $1.5-2 billion per year on its import bill. That saving reduces the current account deficit, strengthens forex reserves, and gives the government room to cut fuel prices without expanding subsidies.
The chain is direct: lower oil → stronger balance of payments → higher credit confidence → cheaper borrowing → more money for development.
The Fuel Subsidy Question
One concern remains. The government ended fuel subsidies for motorcyclists, public transport, freight operators, and farmers after a review by the National Steering Committee. That means relief now comes only through market-driven price cuts, not government-funded subsidies.
The IMF has been pushing Pakistan to eliminate fuel subsidies entirely. With oil prices falling naturally, the government can pass savings to consumers without violating IMF programme conditions. That is the ideal scenario — and it is happening right now.
What Pakistani Families Should Watch Tomorrow
The OGRA notification for the June 26 revision will be announced tomorrow evening. Check 24PakTimes for live coverage.
If petrol drops below Rs290, the cumulative saving for a family filling up once per week (50-litre tank) compared to the April peak would exceed Rs8,500 per fill — or roughly Rs34,000 per month. That is significant relief for middle-class Pakistani households.
24PakTimes will report on the OGRA notification tomorrow and calculate the exact impact for consumers.
