Why US Strikes Iran
The U.S. military struck Iranian targets on Friday after Iran attacked a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz — the first American strikes on Iran since the two countries agreed to extend an already fragile ceasefire last week.
Then Iran hit back.
Iran said it struck targets linked to U.S. forces on Saturday in response to the American airstrikes on its southern coast, as each side continued to accuse the other of violating last week’s agreement meant to end the four-month-old war. Then Bahrain was hit. Bahrain, which hosts the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, condemned what it said was an Iranian drone attack on its territory as a flagrant violation of its sovereignty, adding that it reserved the right to defend itself.
Ten days. That is how long the Islamabad MOU lasted before the first bombs fell again.
What Happened — The Sequence
It started Thursday. The new strikes came in response to an Iranian drone attack on the Ever Lovely, a commercial ship, in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump blamed Iran, saying the country “shot at least four One Way Attack Drones at ships transversing the Strait of Hormuz.” He claimed to have knocked down three of the drones, but the fourth hit its target.
On Friday, the US responded. The strikes targeted Iranian missile and drone storage facilities and radar sites, U.S. Central Command said, calling it a “powerful response” to Iran’s “dangerous behavior.” CBS News confirmed that American aircraft hit multiple targets along the Strait of Hormuz and on Iran’s Qeshm Island — four targets struck by six land-based US aircraft.
On Saturday morning, Iran retaliated. Iran’s foreign ministry did not identify the locations of its “defensive” attacks, which it said were a response to “the barbaric air strikes” by the US on its coastal surveillance facilities, in violation of the UN Charter.
The Hormuz Dispute That Caused This
The underlying problem was never resolved in the Islamabad MOU. Who controls the strait?
The US favours a route through the southern portion of the Strait of Hormuz, hugging the Omani coastline. Iran insists ships still need its permission and must use a northern route closer to the Iranian coast. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority stated on Thursday: “Any passage through routes outside the framework designated by PGSA will not be covered by safe passage guarantees.”
Hours later, the Ever Lovely was hit.
A former US diplomat put it bluntly. “The MoU was a one-and-a-half-page document where ambiguity was the feature and not the bug,” said Alan Eyre to PBS NewsHour. “There was a lot of ambiguity to be filled in later.”
That ambiguity is now being filled in with missiles.
Vance Responds, IRGC Threatens Broader Strikes
Vice President JD Vance said the Americans had adhered to the ceasefire deal. “Iran signed a ceasefire agreement. We have honored it. If they have disagreements about how the MOU is being applied, they can pick up the phone. But violence will be met with violence,” he said on X.
The IRGC’s response was sharper. Times of Israel confirmed that Iranian Revolutionary Guards claimed to target US sites around the region in retaliation, threatening that “if the aggression is repeated, our response will be broader.”
What This Means for Pakistan
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, when asked about its role, referred reporters to previous public statements and said Pakistan will continue mediating. That was before Iran hit Bahrain with drones this morning.
The Islamabad MOU — the deal that bears Pakistan’s name — is now being tested by live fire from both signatories. The Bürgenstock 60-day roadmap that Pakistan and Qatar brokered last Sunday is in acute danger.
If the deal collapses, oil prices spike. Petrol in Pakistan, currently at Rs299.78, reverses course. The PSX — which crashed 2,500 points the last time talks failed — reopens Monday to a fundamentally different geopolitical picture than when it last traded.
Before the renewed outbreak of violence, oil prices had fallen about 3% on Friday on course for steep weekly losses. Whether that decline holds after Saturday’s escalation depends entirely on what happens next.
One piece of genuinely good news: Saudi Aramco resumed crude loadings at its Ras Tanura terminal in the Gulf — the world’s biggest oil port — after a nearly four-month halt. If Ras Tanura keeps operating, global oil supply may hold even if the strait becomes contested again.
Pakistan is watching. The world is watching. And the 60-day clock on the Islamabad MOU may have already stopped.
