Vice President JD Vance said talks in Doha were “going well” and that discussions about the nuclear issue would start soon.
Hours later, Iran’s chief negotiator said the opposite. Iran is “currently not negotiating with the United States at all,” said Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the parliament speaker and chief negotiator.
Two statements. Same day. Same city. Completely irreconcilable.
Qatar said that separate indirect meetings in Doha between US and Iranian negotiators made “positive progress” on issues tied to the memorandum of understanding, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions, according to RFERL’s Qatar foreign ministry report. Qatari and Pakistani mediators held separate talks with the US and Iranian delegations in Qatar’s capital, adding that the next meeting would be scheduled “at the earliest possible time” after funeral processions for Iran’s former supreme leader.
Iranian authorities are planning funeral ceremonies for the slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on February 28, from July 4 through July 9 in locations across Iran and Iraq. That five-day funeral window effectively pauses high-level diplomacy until July 10 at the earliest.
Working Groups Formed — But Talks Haven’t Started
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi announced that working groups have been formed to follow up on the implementation of the Islamabad MOU and to negotiate a final agreement — but talks in this format have not yet begun. Gharibabadi told reporters that consultations are continuing to determine the time and place for the start of negotiations through mediators. After this meeting, a trilateral meeting of senior negotiators from Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan was held to review the implementation process.
Pakistan remains at the table. But the table is getting smaller. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said no high-level meeting between US and Iranian officials is scheduled in Doha in the coming days. “To the best of my knowledge, there are no direct meetings scheduled between the two parties in the coming days,” Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari told reporters, in confirmation tracked by Al Jazeera’s Iran war live blog.
CNN’s Iran war July 1 live coverage confirmed the fundamental ambiguity driving the contradiction between Vance and Qalibaf: both sides are describing the same indirect Qatar-mediated process through completely different frames — one as progress, one as non-negotiation.
The Strait: 34 Crossings vs 100 Pre-War
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is slowly picking up with 34 recorded crossings yesterday, according to Marine Traffic data — still far from the pre-war average of around 100 daily crossings. The Hormuz Strait Monitor live tracker confirms the recovery is real but fragile.
Iran has exported 50 million barrels of crude oil in the past two weeks since the United States lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Based on this figure, Iran exported 1.66 million barrels per day in June. Other countries in the region are still nowhere near pre-war export levels. The first phase of regional understandings is focusing heavily on mine clearance and maritime safety in the strait, coordinated closely with Oman.
For Pakistan, these talks determine whether petrol stays near Rs299 or spikes back above Rs350. The Bürgenstock 60-day roadmap gave both sides a framework. The IRGC’s missile strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain tested it. The Khamenei funeral ceremonies from July 4-9 will now pause it. Every barrel that passes through Hormuz pushes crude lower. Every barrel that doesn’t pushes it higher. The difference, at the Pakistani pump, is felt by every family that runs a car or pays for a bus ride.
